Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 0.015658 0.017710 0.019931 0.022514 0.025436 0.028639 0.032419
2025-10-19 0.012624 0.015496 0.018866 0.023114 0.028333 0.034540 0.042492
2025-10-26 0.010639 0.013809 0.017740 0.022980 0.029788 0.038351 0.049961
2025-11-02 0.009292 0.012625 0.016950 0.022983 0.031193 0.042003 0.057360
2025-11-09 0.008115 0.011470 0.015998 0.022567 0.031875 0.044626 0.063490
2025-11-16 0.007392 0.010825 0.015625 0.022839 0.033434 0.048480 0.071564
2025-11-23 0.006661 0.010074 0.015002 0.022650 0.034259 0.051291 0.078308
2025-11-30 0.006237 0.009722 0.014903 0.023188 0.036158 0.055773 0.087869
2025-12-07 0.005568 0.008923 0.014051 0.022484 0.036064 0.057189 0.092769
2025-12-14 0.005070 0.008340 0.013471 0.022131 0.036457 0.059347 0.098965
2025-12-21 0.004574 0.007714 0.012761 0.021496 0.036316 0.060600 0.103733
2025-12-28 0.004421 0.007635 0.012928 0.022309 0.038623 0.066017 0.115908
2026-01-04 0.004210 0.007447 0.012905 0.022814 0.040476 0.070868 0.127629
2026-01-11 0.004026 0.007290 0.012922 0.023389 0.042500 0.076180 0.140643
2026-01-18 0.003746 0.006936 0.012562 0.023254 0.043228 0.079240 0.149800
2026-01-25 0.003515 0.006648 0.012294 0.023257 0.044195 0.082787 0.160134
2026-02-01 0.003246 0.006267 0.011822 0.022837 0.044325 0.084776 0.167637
2026-02-08 0.003094 0.006094 0.011723 0.023112 0.045796 0.089396 0.180635
2026-02-15 0.002896 0.005815 0.011400 0.022921 0.046333 0.092242 0.190313
2026-02-22 0.002800 0.005732 0.011447 0.023466 0.048378 0.098197 0.206808
2026-03-01 0.002572 0.005361 0.010896 0.022753 0.047794 0.098820 0.212236
2026-03-08 0.002401 0.005094 0.010534 0.022395 0.047913 0.100875 0.220846
2026-03-15 0.002216 0.004782 0.010054 0.021752 0.047372 0.101501 0.226394